We tend to make a lot of decisions by ‘gut-feel’. And if I asked you how it usually turns out, chances are you believe you get it right on most occasions.
Here is why you may be wrong on both counts.
The way you feel about a decision is the result of what your brain anticipates based on a myriad of factors ranging from experience, environmental influences, to the quality of sleep or food you have had.
Research on parole decisions made my Judges shows that the denial rate goes up sharply just before lunch time. And goes back to average post lunch! This presumable happens in business meetings and interviews too.
The fact that we continue to value gut-feel can be explained by the hindsight bias. We feel a sense of conviction about our choices AFTER we know how things turned out ( eg. “I knew I should have bought that stock, I should always trust my gut.”).
A few tips to improve the quality of your decisions –
· Consider other points of view. We tend to live in ‘echo chambers’ where people around us have similar views and preferences.
· Create psychological safety, so people at all levels feel safe contributing their original thoughts. The best ideas don’t always come from the C-Suite.
· Use research, global benchmarks where available, and a robust method of strategy creation. We are not equipped to always anticipate the wider impact of our decisions.
Ten minds working as one is always better than one mind in isolation.
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